Yahoo Finance analysis, based on 75 years of historical data, suggests that while midterm election years are associated with heightened volatility and larger intra-year corrections (averaging 17.5% for the S&P 500 since 1950), they are unlikely to be the catalyst for a market plunge. For presidents serving two full terms, the sixth year of their second term (which 2026 is for President Trump) has historically delivered strong returns, with the S&P 500 averaging a nearly 21% gain. This trend is attributed to potential political gridlock being viewed positively by investors and the ongoing importance of AI infrastructure build-out.