MarketWatch analysis suggests that gold is currently weighing the Federal Reserve's credibility, rather than just traditional price drivers such as inflation and interest rates. The US August Consumer Price Index (CPI), released last week, showed a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and an annual inflation rate of 3.4%, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month, slightly above expectations. Although the inflation data should have been bearish for gold, gold did not fall as a result. Traders have significantly increased the probability of a Fed rate hike at its September 15-16 meeting to over 80%.