Musk retweeted a post, stating that street analysts' estimates for orbital data center costs are too high, with SpaceX expecting an initial cost of $46 billion/GW, significantly lower than analysts' $160 billion+.

Musk retweeted @TeslaLarry's analysis on the cost of orbital data centers (AI satellites), which noted that street analysts' estimates for orbital data center costs generally range from $100 billion to $180 billion/GW (e.g., Wood Mac estimates $170 billion/GW, Bank of America estimates $160 billion to $180 billion/GW).

The tweet argued that these estimates are similar to previous analyses that "proved" Starlink could not compete with ground-based data centers. Starlink ultimately succeeded because SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket had a much lower actual cost than its sticker price, and V2/V3 satellites offered significantly more bandwidth than early model assumptions.

The analysis predicts that AI satellites will follow a similar trajectory. Leveraging Starship's launch cost advantage (booster reuse and expendable Starship cost approximately $300/kg), SpaceX expects the initial cost of orbital data centers to be around $46 billion/GW, further decreasing to $24 billion/GW over the next decade with Starship reuse. This is significantly lower than the analysts' common estimates of $160 billion+, and it comes with fewer approval delays and political resistance.