Eastmoney Securities Research Institute released a macro special report on September 23, outlining the characteristics and patterns of ten global synchronized tightening cycles since the 1970s. The report points out that the current global net interest rate hike diffusion index is still significantly lower than previous typical tightening cycles, and has not yet entered a phase of full accelerated tightening. Analysts believe that the earlier surge in US Treasury yields had a pricing deviation, and if the US-Iran situation eases, inflation expectations are likely to fall with oil prices, and term spreads are also expected to narrow. The report also highlights three key variables that will determine future trends: the US-Iran conflict, the evolution of interest rate spreads after Japan exits zero interest rates, and the potential impact of the AI industry on interest rate movements.