JPMorgan Chase analysts say the stock market's "fracture threshold" may have risen to the 5.5% to 6% range, driven by structural forces.
JPMorgan Chase analysts noted that structural forces, such as artificial intelligence, healthcare, and the services sector, have significantly weakened the constraints of traditional interest rate transmission mechanisms, potentially raising the stock market's "breakage threshold" to the 5.5% to 6% range. The average yield on the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Government Bond Index rose to 3.99% on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since 2007, while the US 5-year government bond yield surpassed 5% for the first time, and the Japan 10-year yield touched its highest point since 1996. Mike Bell, Head of Market Strategy at BlueBay Asset Management, believes that 5% is not an absolute threshold, and the key lies in the comparative relationship between government bond yields and equity earnings yields. Federal Reserve official Austan Goolsbee admitted this week that he is unsure whether the market's reaction to a prolonged period of 5% yields will differ from the past.
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