Morgan Stanley: If the US bans diesel exports, Europe would be the biggest victim, and US gasoline prices could rise; Citi focuses on Poland risk
Morgan Stanley noted in a September 23 report that if the U.S. implements a diesel export ban (which Donald Trump has expressed support for), Northwestern Europe would be hit hardest, as it imports approximately 250,000 barrels of diesel per day from the U.S., and the ban would lead to a surge in European diesel prices. The report also warned that the ban could transmit through the refining system, potentially driving up U.S. domestic gasoline prices. Citi Research, in a September 24 report, focused on Poland, deeming it the most vulnerable in Central and Eastern Europe in terms of diesel intensity and price transmission. If the shock persists, the Polish central bank could face pressure to raise interest rates.
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