UBS: Market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October is too aggressive; core PCE inflation is expected to be revised down by 0.2 percentage points, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike rates consecutively.
UBS Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and his team noted in their latest report that the actual extent of Federal Reserve policy tightening is likely to be less than what current market pricing suggests. UBS's base case is for the Federal Reserve to hike rates once more in December and then maintain them, while also expecting core PCE inflation to be revised down by 0.2 percentage points this month by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's annual revision. Coupled with favorable base effects in the first half of next year, the basis for continuous substantial rate hikes is weakening. The report also pointed out that resilient U.S. economic activity provides a favorable environment for corporate revenue and profit growth, with S&P 500 earnings projected to grow by 25% this year and 14% in 2027. Furthermore, UBS maintains an "attractive" rating on fixed income assets and believes gold still holds allocation value in the medium to long term, forecasting gold prices to rise to $5,400/ounce around September 2027.
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