Canadian Prime Minister Carney says he has reviewed the possibility of military conflict with the United States, but experts believe it is highly unlikely.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated in a Wednesday interview with The New York Times that he has reviewed the possibility of a U.S. military attack on Canada, calling it an "extreme tail risk"—an event with a very low probability but potentially severe consequences. Carney (the former Governor of the Bank of England) emphasized that this is part of risk management and would be irresponsible not to do. Experts noted that Carney's remarks do not signal an impending war but indicate he views it as a remote possibility. This move comes against the backdrop of Donald Trump's annexation threats and ongoing trade disputes, including Trump's 2025 tariffs on Canadian goods and his past comment that Canada "would be better off as the 51st state." The Carney administration is seeking to reduce economic reliance on the U.S. and is reviewing the F-35 fighter jet procurement plan, while also seeking to expand alliances with the EU and the UK. Ty Solomon, Professor of International Relations at the University of Glasgow, and Eric Taylor Woods, Associate Professor of Political Communication at the University of Leeds, both believe that a U.S.-Canada military conflict is "almost inconceivable" and "highly unlikely."