Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard, warns: The Federal Reserve has committed a "cardinal sin," and the 10-year US Treasury yield could be heading towards 8%.
Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard, warned that the Federal Reserve has committed a "cardinal sin," and the 10-year US Treasury yield could be heading towards 8%. In his latest report, "Original Sin Revisited," Blitz states that the Fed's premature easing of monetary policy before inflation was fully suppressed is the "cardinal sin" that will drive the 10-year Treasury yield to eventually reach 8% in the coming years. He believes that the current yield of 5.30% (which hit a new high since 2002 on Wednesday) is merely the next interim platform, and 8% is the long-term target. This will significantly suppress the stock market and end investors' decades-long "buy the dip" mindset. Blitz noted that the combination of loose fiscal and monetary policies will push up the central tendency of inflation and yields in every economic cycle, and the US political landscape makes this situation difficult to reverse in the short term. He suggests that genuine political will to suppress inflation might not emerge until 2029 at the earliest.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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