Brazil will hold the first round of its presidential election this Sunday, with incumbent President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Bolsonaro, as the main contenders. Analysts point out that the election results will not only impact Brazil domestically but also have profound implications for the US-China competition in Latin America and Brazil's growing debt problem.

Otaviano Canuto, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, stated that if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, it will deepen the region's strategic alignment with US President Donald Trump's "America Plan." If Lula wins a fourth term, it could thwart Washington's attempts to dominate the region and squeeze China's influence. Brazil, the region's largest economy and the world's second-largest holder of rare earth reserves, is strategically important for US access to critical minerals.

Brazilian economist Paulo Nogueira Batista said that the two main candidates have starkly different policy platforms, and the election results will have a substantial impact on all aspects of Brazilian life. Flávio Bolsonaro advocates privatization, spending cuts, and close alignment with the US, while Lula has placed Brazilian sovereignty at the core of his campaign and promised to shorten the work week and lower income taxes for low-income earners.

Furthermore, Brazil's ballooning debt problem is also a key election focus. The country's debt-to-GDP ratio reached 82.9% in August, with a budget deficit of 9.48% of GDP, raising market concerns about the new government's fiscal credibility. Analysts emphasize that no matter who is elected, a plan to control public finances must be presented, otherwise high interest rates will push debt onto an unsustainable trajectory.