Wall Street is betting on the Brazilian election, with derivatives trading volume hitting a new record, predicting a roughly 60% chance of Flávio Bolsonaro winning.
Wall Street investors are betting on post-election volatility through large-scale derivatives trading, facing a close race in the Brazilian general election. The one-week implied volatility for the Brazilian real has surged above 31%, the highest level since late 2022. Open interest in options tracking EWZ, the largest exchange-traded fund for Brazilian equities, has surpassed 9 million contracts, reaching an all-time high. Prediction markets currently assign right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro approximately a 60% chance of winning, with market participants generally believing his victory could drive fiscal improvement.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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