Bank of America warns: The AI narrative is acting as a "buffer" against macro risks, and its failure could trigger a market-wide crisis.
Bank of America noted in its latest report that the AI narrative is currently effectively suppressing stock market volatility, acting as an "AI put option" against various macro risks. The bank believes that if the AI narrative cracks, a repricing of growth prospects would escalate the current pressure in the U.S. Treasury market into a full-market crisis, potentially significantly amplifying all suppressed macro risks. The report mentioned that last week's 5-year U.S. Treasury auction yield reached 5.033%, a new high since 2007, while the strong debut of Meta's AI assistant Muse drove Nasdaq up by over 3%. BofA also stated that current bubble risks remain concentrated in a few leading stocks, fundamentally differing from the dot-com bubble era of 1999, and that fundamentals remain resilient, placing extreme risk scenarios further out on the timeline.
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