The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 6% could trigger a CTD switch in futures, leading to rebalancing pressure for institutions.
On Monday, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.70%, its highest level since 2002. Bloomberg analysis suggests that if the yield approaches 6%, the "cheapest-to-deliver" (CTD) bond for long-term Treasury futures could switch from the 2045 maturity to the 2050 maturity. This could force asset managers to sell futures, further exacerbating the rise in long-end yields. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that asset managers cut their net long positions in ultra-long Treasury futures by nearly 100,000 contracts in the week ending September 29.
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