SpaceX shares jumped 8% to $171 on Monday, marking a nearly 50% increase from its lows and reclaiming its IPO price. However, the options market indicates a key difference from its previous rally, with implied volatility at 55%, down from over 110% during its June debut. Options pricing suggests traders assign less than a 50% chance for the stock to reach $225 by July, despite Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterating a $300 price target. Monday's options volume was twice the 30-day average, with 1.7 million contracts worth $900 million traded, including 1 million call options valued at over $640 million. Market-makers also assign equal or higher implied volatilities to puts, suggesting downside swings are as likely as upside surges.