UBS analysis points out that the recent touch of 5.34% by the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has drawn comparisons to 1999 (near 5.8%), but significant differences exist between the two periods. UBS believes that while the current AI infrastructure boom shares similarities with telecom spending back then, unlike the budget surplus in 1999, the current U.S. budget deficit exceeds 6% of GDP. This necessitates the market to absorb more long-term debt, which could keep U.S. Treasury yields elevated even after the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes.