A new study from the New York Fed, shared by Nick Timiraos, indicates that by February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation. Without these tariffs, goods prices would have seen a slight decline. The research also found that approximately one quarter of every point in higher tariff rates translates into consumer prices within one year. Specifically, a 10% across-the-board tariff leads to a 2.6% rise in consumer goods prices after one year. About two-thirds of this increase stems from pricier imports, with the remaining third coming from U.S.-made goods due to higher input costs and reduced import competition, which takes 6-12 months to filter through.