Le Pen unveils fiscal plan, avoids pension reform; markets wary of France-Germany spread widening to 200 bps.
Marine Le Pen, the French far-right candidate, unveiled parts of her fiscal plan this Tuesday, notably omitting pension reforms, a topic on which she previously advocated for lowering the retirement age. Mike Bell, Head of Market Strategies at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, stated that markets are closely watching whether Le Pen will commit to raising the retirement age; otherwise, the spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields could widen further to 200 basis points. Last Friday, the spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields already surpassed 150 basis points, reaching a new high since late 2011. Bell also warned that the European Central Bank's Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) requires member states to comply with EU fiscal rules, a condition France currently does not meet, which could limit the policy buffer provided by the ECB.
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