Goldman Sachs' Washington political team noted in their October 8 "US Election Monitor" report that with only 26 days left until the US midterm elections, prediction markets now assign a 65% probability to a Democratic sweep of both the Senate and House of Representatives, while the probability of Republicans retaining a House majority is less than 10%. The Goldman Sachs report directly links the Democrats' lead to the trend in US retail gasoline prices, showing a high degree of synchronization between the two. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Chief Strategist Michael Hartnett warned that a Democratic sweep would trigger "significant risk aversion," potentially leading to a more than 10% drop in US equities, a weaker dollar, and lower bond yields.