Barclays' latest estimates: Even if semiconductor EPS is revised down by 15% in fiscal year 2027, the S&P 500 is still expected to achieve double-digit growth.
Barclays noted in its latest report that S&P 500 earnings growth is increasingly reliant on the semiconductor industry. Its stress test showed that if semiconductor EPS were revised down by 15% in fiscal year 2027 while earnings in other sectors remained unchanged, the S&P 500 could still achieve double-digit growth above its long-term trend. However, if semiconductor EPS were revised down by 10% and other sectors saw a simultaneous 2% downward revision, the index's overall earnings growth rate could fall back to near its long-term trend. The report also mentioned that institutional investors have been continuously reducing their holdings in semiconductor stocks in recent months.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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