Wall Street expects the US September headline CPI to rise to 3.6%-3.7% year-on-year, with core inflation slowing. Market expectations for an October rate hike have fallen to 20%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September CPI data at 9:30 PM Beijing time on October 14. Investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Citi predict that the year-on-year increase in headline CPI will jump from 3.4% in August to the 3.6%-3.7% range, primarily driven by rising energy prices. Meanwhile, the month-on-month increase in core CPI is expected to slightly narrow from 0.29% in August to between 0.18%-0.24%. Influenced by recent statements from Federal Reserve officials, the market's implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October has plummeted from approximately 70% to about 20%, but the probability of a December rate hike remains around 72%.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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