BofA raises its September core PCE month-over-month forecast to 0.32%, reiterating its expectation of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October.
Bank of America Securities, in an October 15 report, stated that given the higher-than-expected September inflation data, it has raised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's "favorite" inflation gauge—the September core PCE month-over-month—by 10 basis points to 0.32% from the previous estimate of approximately 0.22%. The bank reiterated its expectation that the Federal Reserve will hike rates again at its October FOMC meeting and warned that signs of inflation broadening out make the Federal Reserve's previous dovish statements appear premature. The report emphasized that within the core CPI consumption basket, the proportion of items with an annualized increase exceeding 2.5% over the past three months has rebounded to 55%, and the September PPI, released on Thursday, rose to a four-year high of 6.3% year-over-year.
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