Google Quantum AI has reduced quantum error rates by approximately 40 times on the Willow chip, but Bitcoin's cryptographic security remains far from being breached.
Google Quantum AI, in a new paper, stated that its Willow chip has reduced a critical class of quantum error rates by approximately 40 times. This technology, by filtering rather than using dedicated quantum bit factories, achieves 99.99% fidelity for remaining qubits after 92% of failed states are eliminated. While this is a significant advancement in quantum computing, cracking RSA-2048 keys would still require an error rate of about one in ten billion, roughly a million times cleaner than what Google has currently demonstrated, and Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography is far from being threatened. Researchers anticipate that the number of physical qubits needed to crack Bitcoin's encryption has decreased from 20 million in 2019 to under 500,000 in a March 2026 white paper, while the Willow chip currently has 105 qubits. Additionally, some Ethereum researchers believe that AI-driven mathematical models might crack elliptic curves faster on conventional hardware than quantum computing.
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