AI Credit Stress Emerges as CoreWeave Bond Yields Break 16% to Become New Barometer, AI-Related Stocks Plummet
CoreWeave's bonds due 2032 saw their yield briefly exceed 16% this week, while its five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread surged to 1,117 basis points, implying a five-year default probability of approximately 63%. Both Goldman Sachs and UBS have noted that the bonds of this single-B rated emerging cloud computing company have replaced NVIDIA's stock as the core barometer for tracking AI trades. Credit stress is now spreading across the entire data center ecosystem. Morgan Stanley's AI Tech Beneficiaries basket recorded its largest weekly decline of 16.5% since its inception in 2023, and Goldman Sachs' Emerging Cloud Computing basket plummeted 24.8%. Goldman Sachs has urgently arranged cross-asset conference calls, pointing out that CCC-rated spreads broke above 1,000 basis points this week, reaching a new high since 2023. Morgan Stanley estimates that AI infrastructure expansion will face a funding gap of $1.58 trillion by 2027.
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