Citi's latest quantitative cross-asset research indicates that a pullback in oil prices is a necessary precondition for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to peak. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions are keeping oil prices high, suggesting that the ultimate peak in yields may not have arrived yet. The report notes that current market signals are contradictory: strengthening front-end breakeven inflation and a stronger DXY point to yields not having peaked, while widening high-yield credit spreads and weakening cyclical stocks are consistent with characteristics observed after a yield peak. Against this backdrop, Citi's cyclical model follows an "end-of-cycle" strategy, underweighting equities and credit, and overweighting bonds (excluding U.S. Treasuries) and commodities.