Oracle, Meta, and SpaceX credit default swaps (CDS) hit all-time highs, as the market anticipates a surge in AI-related bond issuance in Q4.
As tech giants disclose their earnings and exit "quiet periods," the market anticipates a new wave of large-scale AI-related bond issuance. On Tuesday, Oracle's CDS, seen as a barometer for AI debt risk, surged to 343 basis points intraday. Meta's CDS also rose to a record high of 114.8 basis points, and SpaceX's five-year CDS climbed to 242 basis points intraday, all reaching new historical peaks. Bond investors are actively reducing their existing tech sector exposure in anticipation of a potential massive supply shock. Bank of America analysts estimate that dealers net bought approximately $451 million in hyperscale cloud service provider bonds on Monday, the highest single-day net buying volume since mid-September. Analysts believe this reflects investors actively selling related bonds due to supply and demand concerns. Barclays credit strategists' analysis shows that in the first nine months of this year, the trading volume of CDS linked to the ten largest hyperscale cloud computing and chip manufacturers soared by 691%, reaching a record $140 billion.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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