The IMF stated that the U.S.-Iran conflict has impacted energy production, shipping, tourism, trade, and confidence, projecting a 1.3% contraction in economic output for the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan this year. Its baseline assumption is that the conflict will de-escalate in early 2027 and trade will gradually normalize within the year, at which point economic growth is expected to rebound to 6.6%, though the outlook still faces extremely high uncertainty.