JPMorgan Chase noted in a research report on October 22 that the U.S. Treasury market experienced its largest single-day yield decline since the regional banking crisis in March 2023, with yields across all maturities falling by 15 to 21 basis points, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closing at 4.95%. The bank believes this "flight-to-safety frenzy" was not driven by an improvement in U.S. fundamentals, but rather by a combination of the European sovereign debt storm and weakness in Nasdaq tech stocks.
The report stated that despite the clamor around "de-dollarization," overseas private capital continues to pour into the long end of the U.S. Treasury market as the ultimate safe haven, with primary market demand for long-dated Treasuries reaching an all-time high. JPMorgan Chase recommends continuing to hold steepener trades on the 10-year/30-year U.S. Treasury yield curve and emphasized that it is not advisable to short this rebound easily until risk assets clearly stabilize.
JPMorgan Chase: U.S. Treasury yields saw their largest single-day drop since March 2023, making it inadvisable to short this rebound easily.
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