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ECB survey shows professional forecasters raise 2026-2027 inflation and GDP growth expectations
The European Central Bank's (ECB) fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) results indicate that respondents have raised their inflation and real GDP growth expectations for 2026 and 2027. Specifically, the headline inflation forecast for 2026 was increased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.0%, and for 2027 by 0.4 percentage points to 2.6%. Regarding real GDP growth, the 2026 forecast was raised by 0.4 percentage points to 1.0%, and the 2027 forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3%. Long-term inflation and GDP growth expectations remained largely stable. The survey also noted that any additional impact of the Middle East conflict on energy prices is primarily expected to materialize in 2027, but second-round effects are anticipated to remain limited.
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