According to CNBC, during his campaign, U.S. President Donald Trump promised to lower gasoline prices to under $2/gallon in his first year in office and to cut energy prices by half or more within 12 months. However, on the eve of the midterm elections, both gasoline and diesel prices have risen sharply. Last Friday, the national average gasoline price in the U.S. was $4.20/gallon, up nearly 40% from the same period last year; diesel prices were $6.32/gallon, a year-over-year increase of approximately 70%.

The report points out that the main reasons for the surge in fuel prices include Trump's joint attack with Israel on Iran on February 28, which led to retaliatory Iranian attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Houthi attacks on Saudi refineries and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Trump has stated that rising fuel prices are a "small price to pay" to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said that gasoline prices would drop significantly once the conflict ends. To counter high oil prices, Trump had considered a diesel export ban but ultimately did not implement it, instead issuing an executive order allowing trucks to use tax-exempt off-road diesel and announcing an $8 billion farmer relief plan. He also reached an agreement with Russia allowing Russia to export approximately 6 million barrels of diesel to the global market by November, though analysts believe this move will have little impact on prices. The market is currently pricing in the risk of a potential re-escalation of conflict with Iran after the election, with international Brent crude oil prices rising over 13% in October and West Texas Intermediate crude oil rising 15%.