Bitcoin: Scarcity and Difficulty of Purchase
The future difficulty of purchasing Bitcoin, as the world's first decentralized digital currency, is a topic of significant interest. This involves not only its inherent supply mechanism but also multiple external factors such as the global regulatory environment, changes in market demand, and technological developments. We will delve into the potential trends in Bitcoin's future purchase difficulty from four main dimensions: scarcity, regulation, market, and technology.
Supply Scarcity and Halving Mechanism
The Bitcoin protocol sets a hard cap of 21 million coins, a rule that ensures its scarcity. The rate at which new Bitcoins are generated automatically decreases through a "halving" mechanism, occurring approximately every four years. The most recent halving took place in April 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The next halving is expected around April 2028, at which point the block reward will again halve to 1.5625 BTC. This mechanism makes Bitcoin increasingly scarce over time, with the issuance of new coins continuously decreasing. As of January 15, 2026, the total circulating supply of Bitcoin has reached approximately 19.976 million coins, accounting for 95.12% of the total supply. In the long run, this fixed supply and decreasing issuance rate will fundamentally increase the cost of acquiring Bitcoin, making it "harder to buy" in terms of price.
Evolution of Global Regulatory Environment
Regulatory policies are a key factor influencing the ease of purchasing Bitcoin, with significant differences in attitudes worldwide:
- United States: Since 2025, the U.S. government has elevated cryptocurrency development to a national strategy, revoking some previous policies, and in March 2025, announced the establishment of a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve." The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s regulatory model is also shifting from "enforcement deterrence" to "co-creation of rules." A unified stablecoin and crypto-asset regulatory bill is expected in 2025, signaling a clearer and more innovation-supportive regulatory environment, which may lower the purchase threshold for compliant channels.
- China: Bitcoin is strictly restricted, and even completely banned, in China. Officials from the People's Bank of China have stated that they will rectify and clean up various virtual currencies. Therefore, in mainland China, purchasing and trading Bitcoin face extremely high difficulty and legal risks.
- Other Countries/Regions: In Japan, Singapore, Australia, and most EU countries, Bitcoin is legal, but each country has different regulations regarding investment, trading, and taxation. Canada recognizes cryptocurrencies as legal but not as legal tender. These countries and regions are generally developing or improving regulatory frameworks, striving to balance risk control and support for innovation.
Overall, the clarification and supportive shift in regulatory policies by major economies help enhance Bitcoin's legitimacy and credibility, which may increase the convenience of purchasing through compliant channels. However, continued strict restrictions in some countries and regions will keep the purchase difficulty high for local residents.
Market Demand and Institutional Participation
Market demand is another important factor influencing the difficulty of purchasing Bitcoin:
- Launch of ETFs: The emergence of Bitcoin spot ETFs provides traditional investors with more convenient purchase channels, lowering the barrier for individuals to directly hold and manage cryptocurrencies, especially for institutional investors. This allows Bitcoin to enter a wider range of investment portfolios through regulated financial products.
- Recent Market Dynamics: As of July 2026, Bitcoin ETF capital flows have been weak, and corporate demand for Bitcoin is not as strong as in the past; for example, MicroStrategy has sold some Bitcoin. At the same time, Bitcoin spot trading volume has hit a new low since 2019, and exchange fund flows are almost stagnant. This indicates relatively weak market demand currently.
- Long-Term Holder Behavior: As of July 31, 2026, the supply of Bitcoin held for over one year continues to rise, with a monthly average of 217,000 coins, reflecting a tendency for many investors to hold long-term. However, the recent scale of long-term holders transferring their holdings to trading platforms has risen to a high level, contributing 5.1% of the total Bitcoin inflow to trading platforms, close to the historical peak of 5.5% in 2020. This may indicate that some long-term holders are engaging in profit-taking or adjusting their strategies.
Currently, the Bitcoin price is approximately $63,683 (as of August 4, 2026), with a market capitalization of $1.28 trillion, down about 0.55% in 24 hours. Although market demand has fluctuated in the short term, the enrichment of institutional products and the acceptance by traditional finance are still expected to enhance Bitcoin's overall purchasability in the long run.
Technological Development and Potential Challenges
From a technical perspective, long-term technological threats such as quantum computing could theoretically affect Bitcoin's security, but this remains a long-term concern and does not yet pose an actual difficulty for purchasing. The Bitcoin core development team and the broader crypto community will continue to monitor and research potential solutions.
Conclusion
In summary, the statement that Bitcoin is "getting harder to buy" needs to be understood on two levels:
- Price Level: Due to its fixed total supply of 21 million coins and the scarcity brought by the halving mechanism, Bitcoin's long-term value and acquisition cost are expected to continue to rise. In this sense, it will become "more expensive," and thus "harder to buy."
- Convenience Level: The evolution of the global regulatory environment is key. Major economies like the United States are shifting towards supporting innovation and have lowered the entry barrier for ordinary investors through financial products like Bitcoin ETFs, enhancing purchase convenience. However, strict restrictions in some countries (such as China) and potentially stricter global KYC/AML requirements in the future may increase the procedural difficulty of purchasing in certain regions or for certain groups.
Therefore, Bitcoin's scarcity will likely make its value higher, but the convenience of purchase channels and processes depends on local regulations and market developments. Investors considering purchasing Bitcoin should fully understand its inherent mechanisms, global regulatory dynamics, and the laws and regulations of their own jurisdiction.
