Bitcoin: Market Adjustment, Not Crisis, Building Momentum for the Next Phase
As of August 13, 2026, the Bitcoin price hovers around $64,000. Previously, after reaching an all-time high of approximately $127,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin fell to about $60,000 in early 2026 and experienced a significant correction in the first half of 2026, with a maximum drawdown of about 54%. Despite the price drop, the market generally views this not as a bad thing, but as a healthy adjustment and bottoming-out process.
Positive Market Signals
- Accumulation by Long-Term Holders: Data shows that the proportion of long-term holders' positions to the total circulating supply reached a new historical high of 79%, indicating that over 80% of Bitcoin is locked up for the long term. This is often seen as a positive signal at the end of historical bear markets.
- Institutional Capital Inflow: In early August 2026, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $854 million, the best single-week performance since April, with five consecutive trading days of net inflows. BlackRock's IBIT absorbed approximately $479 million, showing sustained institutional demand.
- Increased Market Maturity: Compared to previous bear markets with corrections exceeding 80%, this round's approximately 50% correction reflects increased market maturity and relatively reduced volatility.
- Price Support: The Bitcoin price is approaching the miner shutdown price and production cost, with the $60,000 mark considered to have strong support.
Analysis of Correction Reasons
This round of Bitcoin correction was influenced by multiple factors:
- Macroeconomic Factors: Global inflationary pressures and expectations of potential monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve led to tighter market liquidity and pressure on risk assets.
- Institutional Selling: MicroStrategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin from late June to early July 2026, raising market concerns.
- Whale Activity: Some whales holding large amounts of Bitcoin showed selling behavior in June 2026.
Ethereum: Technology and Institutional Dual-Driven, Laying the Foundation for Growth
While the Bitcoin market adjusts, Ethereum (ETH) is laying a solid foundation for future growth through a series of key developments. As of August 13, 2026, the Ethereum price is approximately $1,878.
Accelerated Technical Upgrades
Ethereum has entered the "predictable engineering delivery" phase, with plans for two hard fork upgrades annually starting from 2025. Following the Pectra and Fusaka upgrades in 2025, two major upgrades, Glamsterdam (mid-year) and Hegotá (second half), are planned for 2026.
- Glamsterdam Upgrade: Expected in mid-2026, this upgrade aims to improve MEV (Miner Extractable Value) fairness and network efficiency. It will introduce Verkle Trees, embedded Proposer-Builder Separation (ePBS), and block-level access lists, targeting an increase in L1 transactions per second (TPS) to over 12,000.
- Hegotá Upgrade: Expected in the second half of 2026, this upgrade primarily addresses state growth issues. Through Verkle Trees, this upgrade is expected to save up to 90% of node storage requirements, significantly reducing the cost of running a node, thereby pushing Ethereum towards stateless clients, which is crucial for the network's long-term decentralization.
Institutionalization Process and RWA Dominance
- Institutional Service Platform: In July 2026, the independent non-profit organization Ethereum Institutional officially launched, aiming to serve as a dedicated portal for institutions within the Ethereum ecosystem. It has already established over 500 institutional partnerships, indicating a new peak in institutional interest in Ethereum.
- Mainstreaming of Staking: Since Ethereum's transition to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) mechanism, institutional investors' commitment to Ethereum staking has reached unprecedented levels, which not only strengthens network security but also injects new vitality.
- RWA Tokenization Leader: Ethereum dominates the real-world asset (RWA) tokenization sector. As of January 2026, the total value locked (TVL) of on-chain tokenized assets reached $12.5 billion, with a market share of 65.5%, far exceeding other blockchains. Wall Street giants like BlackRock and JPMorgan have extensively tokenized treasuries, private credit, and fund products on the Ethereum chain.
- Stablecoin Ecosystem: Ethereum hosts over $62 billion in stablecoin circulation, accounting for over 62%, and holds a 68% share of the total value locked in DeFi, demonstrating its status as a core infrastructure of the crypto economy.
Market Outlook
Several analysts are optimistic about Ethereum's future. For example, CoinCodex predicts that the Ethereum price could range between $4,916.87 and $7,709.89 in 2026. Crypto News and Cryptopolitan also predict a potential breakthrough of $5,000 in 2026, possibly reaching $5,772.83. Brave New Coin forecasts a target price of $6,000 by the end of 2026. The ETH/BTC ratio in April 2026 also showed signs of capital flowing into Ethereum.
