CITIC Securities: Returns on offline IPO subscriptions are expected to remain within a stable range, with returns for Class A accounts with a 200 million yuan balance projected to be around 3% to 4%.

CITIC Securities noted that in 2025, the scale of initial public offerings (IPOs) on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges increased by 110% year-over-year, with the median first-day gain reaching 213%, and returns from offline IPO subscriptions rising year-over-year. Based on model calculations, for Class A accounts with assets of 200 million to 500 million yuan, returns from offline IPO subscriptions on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges in 2025 are estimated to be approximately 2.49% to 3.83%. In 2025, the total IPO issuance volume on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is projected to reach 7.5 billion yuan. The online subscription success rate is expected to continue its downward trend, while the median first-day gain is projected to reach 284%. Based on model calculations, for accounts with a balance of 10 million yuan, the return on online IPO subscriptions on the BSE in 2025 is estimated to be approximately 2.64%. Looking ahead, against a backdrop of improved regulations, stable market structures, and a balance of variables, CITIC Securities believes that returns from offline IPO subscriptions will remain within a stable range, with returns for a 200-million-yuan Class A account expected to be around 3% to 4%.