Svmuu News: According to CME’s “Federal Reserve”: Prior to the release of the nonfarm payrolls data, the probability of the Federal Reserve. cutting rates by 25 basis points in January was 11.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 88.4%.By March, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut stands at 35.8%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 60.6%; the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 3.7%.