Svmuu News: A research report by CITIC Securities states that, as of February 28 local time, the situation in Iran has entered a phase of military conflict. The situation in Iran continues to evolve rapidly; CITIC Securities anticipates that it will be difficult to predict and project a definitive outcome in a single step, and that the situation is more likely to continue fluctuating in response to key signals. CITIC Securities believes that potential shifts in three key indicators—U.S. military deployments, changes in Iran’s political landscape, and the scope of conflict spillover—will determine whether the global market impact will resemble an amplified version of the “Twelve-Day War” of June 2025 or lead to a more extreme scenario. To provide a reference for the potential market impact, CITIC Securities reviewed the market impacts of eight major conflicts in the Middle East since 1970, which can be summarized by the following patterns: gold, as a safe-haven asset, outperforms the U.S. dollar; oil prices remain driven by supply and demand in the long term; U.S. stock market performance is directly linked to the extent of U.S. military intervention and the course of the conflict; and there is no significant impact on Chinese assets. (Jin Shi)