Svmuu News: As the war in the Middle East drives up oil prices and fuels inflation concerns, money markets scaled back bets on interest rate cuts in the U.S., the U.K., and the eurozone on Monday.According to swaps linked to policy meeting dates, the probability of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. in 2026 has fallen from nearly 50% last week to 20%. Traders no longer expect the Bank of England to cut rates three times this year and have lowered the probability of a March rate cut from over 80% to 60%.They also halved the probability of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) this year, pricing in only 5 basis points of easing. Two-year yields in the U.S., the U.K., and Germany—which are most sensitive to monetary policy shifts—rose more sharply than long-term yields. This reflects a sharp jump in inflation indicators, driven by Brent crude oil prices posting their biggest gain in four years.Laura Cooper, Global Investment Strategist and Head of Macro Credit at Newen Investment, said: “The continued rise in oil prices will have a significant spillover effect on the global economy and the inflation trajectory. A more persistent energy shock could complicate the disinflation process and delay further rate cuts.” (Jin Shi)