Svmuu reported that 10x Research posted an analysis on platform X, pointing out that Bitcoin has fallen below the critical price level of $69,000, indicating a significant shift in market structure with clear signs of trader position adjustments. Futures traders have substantially unwound long positions, and funding rates have turned deeply negative. Concurrently, options flow has notably shifted towards downside protection, with short-term volatility rebounding to mid-range levels and skew remaining negative, reflecting the market's ongoing demand for hedging against downside risks.
10x Research added that the market is no longer trading around expectations of a breakout above $75,000. More responsive traders in the derivatives market have already adjusted their positions first, and the overall market is preparing for uncertainty and potentially larger fluctuations. On a macro level, the market has begun pricing in expectations of interest rate hikes, while the Federal Reserve continues to signal rate cuts. This divergence is unlikely to persist long-term. If the oil price shock further evolves into a growth shock, risk assets may come under pressure. The key price range has entered a sensitive phase; once breached, the downward trend could accelerate.