Svmuu News Goldman Sachs stated that due to the surge in oil and natural gas prices, the probability of the US economy falling into a recession within the next 12 months has risen to 30%, an increase of 5 percentage points from previous expectations. The energy price shock, coupled with tightening financial conditions resulting from the Middle East conflict and the gradual fading effects of the major tax law passed by President Trump last summer, prompted Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius to raise his baseline forecast for the year-end unemployment rate to 4.6%. Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and December. The bank also anticipates that US GDP growth in the second half of this year will be below trend, with an annualized growth rate projected to be between 1.25% and 1.75%. Due to the ongoing disruption of energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs earlier on Monday raised its oil price forecast for this year. The bank stated that this conflict will push up global inflation and reduce global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, but in the worst-case scenario, the impact on GDP could double or even triple. (Jin10)