Monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Channel shows a significant increase in the probability of "Israel launching a strike on Yemen before March 31, 2026" on Polymarket.
The current probability is 60%, with an average probability of 18.1% over the past 7 days.
On March 28, 2026, the Houthi forces announced they had launched a ballistic missile attack on southern Israel. This marks the first direct military action taken by the Houthis against Israeli territory since the recent outbreak of conflict between Iran and the US/Israel.
The group claimed to have struck "sensitive military facilities" in southern Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed detecting a missile fired from the direction of Yemen and stated it had been successfully intercepted, with no reports of casualties at this time.
Houthi spokesperson Yahya Sareea stated that this action was in response to US/Israeli military operations against targets in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Palestine, emphasizing that their actions would continue until "the aggression stops."
Houthi officials have issued multiple warnings recently, stating that blockading the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of their "viable options." Analysts are concerned that, following restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is also substantially blocked, it would sever a key oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) route from the Middle East to Europe and Asia.
The Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.