Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for the Polymarket contract "U.S. Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasting over 70 days" has plummeted to 8%, down 45% in the past 24 hours. As of now, the trading volume for this event contract has exceeded $1.27 million. The contract rules are as follows: If a shutdown of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, beginning on February 14, 2026, lasts for at least the number of days listed in this market (including the start and end dates), it will settle as "YES"; otherwise, it will settle as "NO". The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date the President signs or otherwise enacts an appropriations bill to restart the Department of Homeland Security. Announcements of an impending restart alone will not be counted.
U.S. President Trump just stated that he is about to sign an order to pay salaries to all the admirable employees of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Trump also thanked Speaker of the House Johnson and Thune for their work this week and praised Congressional Republicans for making progress on the Department of Homeland Security issue.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.