Svmuu News "Fed Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos wrote in an article that the addition of 178,000 jobs in March reversed the significant decline seen in February. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. However, some details are less optimistic; wage growth for ordinary workers slowed to the lowest year-on-year increase in the five years since the post-pandemic recovery. Averaging these two highly volatile months provides a clearer view of the underlying trend: the average monthly job gain is only 22,500. Two years ago, adding 22,500 jobs per month would have been enough to raise alarms; today, such a level might still be considered acceptable. Fed officials are still working to explain this shift.
San Francisco Fed President Daly wrote on Friday: "It is not easy for the public to understand that an economy with zero job growth can still be consistent with full employment." This situation is particularly vulnerable in the face of renewed supply shocks. If the war with Iran persists, high fuel costs or commodity shortages could squeeze businesses and consumers, and the labor market would lack a buffer to absorb the shock. Meanwhile, the Fed's policy space is also more limited as inflation concerns may undermine the certainty of rate cuts. (Jin10)