Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows a significant increase in the probability of "U.S. military entering Iran by April 30" on Polymarket. The current probability is 96.5%.
According to Al Jazeera, a U.S. government official told Al Jazeera that the second crew member from the downed F-15E fighter jet has been rescued, and the rescue operation is still ongoing. The missing crew member has been confirmed rescued but is not yet out of danger. They added that the rescue team still needs to successfully evacuate from Iran and return safely.
According to Polymarket's resolution rules, this market will resolve to "Yes" if active-duty U.S. military personnel physically enter Iran at any time before the specified date (Eastern Time). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Special Operations Forces personnel qualify; however, intelligence personnel are not counted. U.S. military personnel must physically enter Iranian land territory to qualify. Entering Iranian waters or airspace does not count.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.