Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of the event "Strait of Hormuz traffic volume returns to normal by April 30" on Polymarket has risen to approximately 57%, up about 43% in 24 hours, with current trading volume around $4.07 million.
The market settles based on IMF PortWatch data. The outcome is determined as "Yes" if the 7-day moving average number of transiting vessels reaches or exceeds 60 on any day within the market cycle; otherwise, it is "No". The statistical scope includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers, counting only data recorded by the IMF PortWatch system.
Previous news: Iranian Foreign Minister: Strait can be safely navigated in the next two weeks with Iran's coordination.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.