Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for the Polymarket contract "Iran-Israel/US Conflict Ends Before April 15" has dropped to 47%, down 22% in 24 hours; the probability for "Iran-Israel/US Conflict Ends Before April 30" has dropped to 55%, down 16% in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume for the "When Will the Iran-Israel/US Conflict End" event contract has exceeded $35.28 million.
The rules for this event contract are as follows: If, during the period from market creation to the specified end date (Eastern Time), there are no qualifying military actions between Iran, Israel, and the US for 14 consecutive days, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". This 14-day period can start at any time between market creation and the specified end date (Eastern Time) and must continue until 12:00 PM Eastern Time on the 14th calendar day after the confirmed attack incident. "Military action" is defined as the use of force by Iran, Israel, or the US against the other's territory or official embassies/consulates, and the action has been formally acknowledged by the relevant government or confirmed by clear consensus from credible reports, including but not limited to airstrikes, maritime attacks, and ground invasions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions are not counted.
On the morning of April 12 local time, the US negotiation delegation left Pakistan, having failed to reach an agreement with Iran. Al Jazeera disclosed that despite numerous efforts from all sides, no agreement has been reached between the US and Iran so far. There is a draft understanding on the table. Judging from Vice President Vance's statement, there is still some possibility, as he stated this was their final and best offer. A source said the good news is that the talks have not broken down, but the bad news is that no breakthrough was achieved either. It is understood that the two sides held about five rounds of talks, with written exchanges after each round, so it seems a broader framework is already in place. Currently, there is a proposal and a counter-proposal. Attention should be paid to Iran's response, as sources interviewed believe the US side presented maximalist demands, especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz, on which Iran is unwilling to concede.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.