According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel, Polymarket has added a new market titled “When will Israel and Hezbollah reach a permanent peace agreement?” The current probability of a peace agreement being reached by April 26 is reported at 9%, while the probability of a peace agreement being reached by May 31 is reported at 29%. A permanent peace agreement refers to any agreement that explicitly states that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will be permanently ceased, or any agreement that uses similar wording to explicitly state that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah will end permanently. Agreements explicitly designated as temporary or those that do not include a permanent end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah (such as the temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire announced on April 16, 2026) do not qualify. The primary sources of information for this market are official statements from the Israeli government and Hezbollah; however, the consensus of other credible reports may also be consulted. The Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel continuously monitors prediction markets to identify changes before they are priced in.