Monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Channel shows that Polymarket has launched a new market titled "When will Powell step down as Fed Chair". Currently, the probability for June 6-12 is the highest at 20%; the probability for May 30 to June 5 is next at 18%.
The event contract rules are as follows: This market will resolve based on the specified date range when Powell ceases to serve as Chair of the Federal Reserve. "Stepping down" refers to Powell no longer actually holding the position of Fed Chair. An announcement of Powell's resignation or dismissal alone does not qualify. The scheduled end of Powell's term alone does not qualify. If Powell continues to serve as acting Chair (e.g., until a successor is confirmed), he will not be considered to have relinquished the Chair position. This market is limited to Powell's tenure as Fed Chair. Powell's status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board does not affect the resolution of this market. All dates are based on US Eastern Time.
The Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.