Analysis: Keep an eye on developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations and the resumption of shipping through the Strait. In the short term, silver is expected to follow gold’s upward trend, with volatility potentially exceeding that of gold.

Svmuu News: The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have driven up the U.S. Dollar Index, while inflation concerns have added to market volatility. Silver’s industrial nature makes it more sensitive to global growth and risk appetite, and its volatility often exceeds that of gold. The “stagnation” in the U.S. economy has yet to be confirmed; with oil prices rising intraday amid renewed geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, expectations for short-term interest rate cuts are unlikely to heat up quickly, and further economic data is needed to provide guidance. Additionally, drivers in the spot silver market remain relatively weak; although 1M, 3M, and 6M London silver leasing rates have rebounded slightly, they continue to fluctuate at low levels. Short-term demand expectations from the silver industry are also weak. The implementation of the solar tax credit phase-out starting in April may lead to a slowdown in the rush to export silver for the solar sector that was seen earlier. (Jin Shi)