Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of a "permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran before April 30" on Polymarket has significantly dropped to 18%, a 17% decrease in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume for the event contract "Permanent Peace Agreement Between US and Iran Before the Specified Date" has exceeded $35 million.
The rules for this event contract are: If Iran and the United States reach a permanent peace agreement before the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will be settled as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be settled as "No". A permanent peace agreement refers to any agreement that explicitly states that military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will cease permanently, or uses similar wording to clearly indicate that military hostilities between the US and Iran will end permanently. Agreements explicitly stated as temporary or final agreements that do not include the permanent cessation of military hostilities between the US and Iran (e.g., a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire announced on April 7, 2026) do not qualify. The primary information sources for this market are official statements from the US and Iranian governments; however, other credible reports may also be referenced.
Tensions escalated sharply on the eve of the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Iran once refused to attend the Islamabad talks, accusing the US of obstructing a substantive agreement. US President Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire at Pakistan's request but threatened to resume bombing Iran once the deadline passed, while maintaining a maritime blockade and expanding sanctions against Iran. US Vice President Vance canceled his trip to Pakistan. Currently, Iran has blocked the entrances and exits of the Strait of Hormuz and publicly displayed ballistic missiles in Tehran, declaring full readiness for the resumption of hostilities.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.