Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "Trump will continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz before April 30," an account with an 81% win rate (@Pajamapants) purchased $40,000 in "Trump will not stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz before April 30," with an average opening price of 68.5¢.
The specific rules are: If President Trump, the U.S. government, or the military publicly and formally announces the end of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, the market will ultimately resolve to "No." The qualifying statement must be clear and explicitly indicate that the U.S. has lifted, ended, will lift, or will end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, or use equivalent clear language explicitly stating that the blockade has stopped or will stop by the specified date (e.g., a statement explicitly indicating that U.S. Navy activities in the relevant area have ceased qualifies). Statements merely describing actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumes shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly stating the blockade is lifted are insufficient. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements by Donald Trump (e.g., posts on his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or its official representatives; however, credible consensus reporting may also be used. Note: This market will be resolved solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or maritime traffic resumes, in the absence of a qualifying announcement, will not be considered.
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