Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has a new event "Elon Musk wins at least $10 billion settlement from Altman/OpenAI". Currently, the probability of "Yes" is 14%.
The rules for this event contract are: As of 23:59 EST on December 31, 2026, if Elon Musk's lawsuit against Altman (Case No.: 4:24-cv-04722-YGR, U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California) results in a jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement of no less than $10 billion in cash or equivalent compensation at the initial trial stage, the market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". If the case is mistried, the initial trial compensation does not meet the threshold, or the compensation is solely non-monetary relief, the judgment will be "No". Results from retrials or appeals will not be considered in this market. The primary basis for judgment will be official information from the U.S. court system, supplemented by consensus reports from credible media outlets.
The trial of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI commenced on April 27 local time with jury selection. The two sides escalated their public confrontation on the X platform before the trial. OpenAI called the lawsuit baseless, while Elon Musk repeatedly posted attacking Sam Altman as "Scam Altman." The core of the case revolves around the controversy over OpenAI's transition to a for-profit entity. Elon Musk accuses OpenAI of betraying its original non-profit founding pledge, seeks up to $134 billion in damages, demands the reversal of the for-profit restructuring, and the removal of relevant executives. The liability determination phase is expected to last until mid-May.
Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets. See the changes before the pricing.