Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel monitoring indicates that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Will any other country leave OPEC in 2026?" Currently, the probability of "Yes" stands at 36%.
The contract rules for this event are as follows: If any other OPEC member state officially announces its withdrawal by 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time on December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Informal statements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaked information will not be considered valid. The primary basis for resolving this market will be official information from the relevant government, although consensus from other credible reports will also be taken into account.
The UAE had previously announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1. As a long-standing OPEC member, the UAE's unexpected announcement of withdrawal could plunge the organization into disarray and weaken its influence. Analysts believe that the UAE's exit from OPEC could be a significant victory for Trump, who has accused the organization of "blackmailing the rest of the world" by driving up oil prices.
Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel continuously monitors prediction markets, seeing the changes before the price is set.